2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS Picks
The 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic will be the 2nd ever PGA tournament at the Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. What this means for DFS players and my picks this week is that we can’t rely too much on course history and will have to predict who this course fits best and whom is red hot right now.
Last week we saw former world number one player Dustin Johnson win his 21st PGA Tour event with an impressive -19 victory at the Travelers Championship. Once again there was a dog fight at the top of the leaderboard heading into the 4th round but in the end DJ regained his old form and took home the trophy. Now we did see this coming as Johnson was one of my honourable mention picks in the Top Tier range at DraftKings and Fanduel as I could see he was starting to look like his old self.
So our hot run does continue as far as having picked either a 1st or 2nd place player each week since the 2020 PGA re-start. Overall we did just ok as two of my picks missed the cut and my goal is for that to never happen. Here is a quick recap before we make our picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK’S MAIN PICKS
Patrick Cantlay – 11th
DraftKings points = 103.5
FanDuel Points = 109
Patrick Reed – 24th
DraftKings points = 85.5
FanDuel Points = 91.3
Gary Woodland – MC
DraftKings points = 34
FanDuel Points = 35.6
Wyndham Clark – MC
DraftKings points = 22
FanDuel Points = 20
Detroit Golf Club Course Analysis
This is only the 2nd year for this tournament at the Detroit Golf Club in Michigan so there is not much course history to take into account this week. The course itself is 7,340 yards which makes it one of the shorter courses on tour. So does that give an advantage to the long ball hitters like we just saw at the Travellers Championship? Well, no not necessarily. The fairways here are straight and protected by trees on all sides. If you are not accurate off the tee you will be having to manoeuvre your way around trees almost every time on your approach shots. Looking at last years tournament using Golfstats we see that driving accuracy and GIR were a big part of success for the top placing players. Nate Lashley who won in 2019 was 4th in GIR and 11th in fairway accuracy.
This week our focus once again goes back to the players with accuracy off the tee and great iron shot making ability.
Key Stats: Driving Accuracy, GIR, SG: Tee to Green
*We use Golfstats.com to analyze course stats and past course history.
Important Notes:
– We only have one year of data at this course so course history is almost a non-factor. You can’t assume a Nate Lashley who won last year will have the same success this year. Focus on who’s in good form right now as your main criteria for drafting lineups.
– The field is vastly weaker compared to the first 3 weeks since the tour restarted at Charles Schwab. There are only 11 out of the Top 50 players playing this week. Expect very high ownership on the biggest names – Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed and Webb Simpson.
Golfers Playing In Their 4th Straight Tournament
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Patrick Reed
- Viktor Hovland
- Sungjae Im
- Tony Finau
- Bubba Watson
- JT Poston
- Jason Day
- Doc Redman
- Lucas Glover
- Rafael Cabrera-Bello
- Brian Harman
- Brendon Todd
- Kevin Kisner
- Branden Grace
- Harold Varner
- Brian Stuard
- Patrick Rodgers
- Si Woo Kim
- Mark Hubbard
- Emiliano Grillo
- Sebastian Munoz
- Talor Gooch
- Tyler Duncan
- Tom Hoge
- Patton Kizzire
- Lanto Griffin
- Matthew Wolff
- Harry Higgs
- Adam Schenk
- Sepp Straka
- Matt Wallace
- Danny Willett
- Russell Knox
- Wyndham Clark
- Matt Jones
- Sam Ryder
- Cheng-Tsung Pan
- Troy Merritt
- Kyoung-Hoon Lee
- Kevin Tway
- Bronson Burgoon
- Scott Brown
- Brian Gay
DFS Picks For The Rocket Mortgage Classic
This week I think so many sleepers are in play because of the weak field so if you are building multiple lineups I suggest building them around two or three top tiered players and taking your chances on some low salary crap shoots. I would have no problem owning a golfer at 65 to 70% this week like a Simpson, Hatton or Hideki.
Top Tier Picks
Tyler Hatton
Draftkings – $10700
FanDuel – $11,100
Tyler comes with a heavy price tag this week but I think he may be worth it. He came back strong at the RBC heritage finishing 3rd and then took the last week off. With some guys now going into their 4th straight tournament I think a fresh Hatton may come out strong this week. This is another accuracy course and Hatton is among the top golfers on tour in Greens In Regulation. Expect high ownership with Hatton this week, as high as 25%. Normally this would make him a good fade but he just looks to be a perfect pick this week so it’s hard to get away from him.
Hideki Matsuyama
Draftkings – $10200
FanDuel – $11,00
So if you are looking for pivot play from Hatton or Webb Simpson then I think Hideki could be the man in the top tier. He looked horrible at the RBC Heritage missing the cut and then took the week off. This will get many people to overlook him so I expect him to be one of the lowest owned players from the top salary guys. Last year he finished 13th with 95 DK points so going by that small sample size this may be the course he reboots his golf game. He is 3rd in SG:Tee to Green and 18th in GIR. His accuracy off the tee is what has been holding him back but if that comes together he could win this tournament.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Core DFS Picks
Kevin Na
Draftkings – $9100
FanDuel – $10,400
I was going to go with Harris English here but he has dropped out due to a positive Covid-19 test. So that brings me to Kevin Na who continues his up and down season so far. Last week he was dynamite with a 5th place finish. He had very impressive weekend rounds and looked to have a shot at winning the whole thing before DJ pulled away. I think he will continue his strong play this week as this course is a great fit for him. The field being so weak makes the mid-tier golfers that much stronger and Na is one of those guys who can win it all or miss the cut any week. You could go $100 cheaper and take Scottie Schefler as well, I would have no issue with him either but Na tends to put a few good tournaments together when he’s hot. I think that may be the case right now, he looks like he may go on a two to 3 week hot run.
Adam Hadwin
Draftkings – $8200
FanDuel – $9800
Hadwin is not normally the type of guy you would want as a core pick because he hasn’t quite shown he can compete with the upper echelon of golf consistently week to week. However, like I said this week the field is not as strong as the 1st three weeks and Hadwin comes in well rested. He plays his best golf on shot making courses like the Detroit Golf Club. He’s averaging 78 DK points so far in 2020 well above his career 65 average so he’s playing a lot more consistently than in past years. He is 23rd in Driving Accuracy, 35th in SG: Tee to Green and 22nd in GIR. Stats don’t tell the whole story but that’s some nice numbers in key areas you need this week. I think he can crack the Top 15 this week.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Sleeper Pick
Kyle Stanley
DraftKings – $7100
FanDuel – $9000
Stanley looked impressive last week ultimately finishing 24th with 82.5 DraftKings points and 89 Fanduel points. He is ranked 6th in Driving Accuracy, 17th in GIR and 77th in SG: Tee to Green. That’s pretty darn good for a guy priced so low and not to mention he had a good showing at this tournament last year finishing 21st with 83 points. Let’s hope he betters that finish this year as everything lines up to him being a solid sleeper pick.
Top Fade Of The Week
Bubba Watson
DraftKings – $9200
FanDuel – $10,300
Bubba has been rather surprising so far since the re-start of the 2020 PGA Season. He had a poor showing last week but in the 1st two weeks he put up over 80 points both times. This week however he is priced a little too high for my likings. He was 15% owned in the millionaire contest last week and with less options this week he may be even higher which makes him a fade for me. He didn’t make the cut last year and his accuracy off the tee has been rather poor this year which will have hime dodging trees with most of his approach shots. At $9200 and $10,300 with a ranking of 153rd in Driving Accuracy I got no need to take a shot with him at all this week.
