So far the 2020 PGA restart due to the Corona Virus has given us two exciting weeks of golf action. Last week at the RBC heritage classic the boys absolutely destroyed Harbour Town Golf Links putting up ridiculous scores. Webb Simpson took down the tournament with a -22 shooting a 64 in the final round.
The same Webb Simpson I took as one of my core plays you needed to build your DFS lineups on DraftKings and Fanduel last week. Not a bad couple weeks with my picks as for 2 weeks in a row I have picked a winner and someone who lost in a playoff round as core plays. Even my top fade turned out pretty good last week in Xander Schauffele. He had a good round 4 but overall did not give you nearly enough fantasy points for his large salary.
Do I expect this hot run to continue, of course not, I wouldn’t be writing this if I could pick winners each and every week but it tells me the process is pretty sharp right now so I’m looking forward to this week’s event at TPC River Highlands.
As of June 24th many golfers have now withdrawn from the Travelers Championship due to either testing positive for Covid-19 or out of an abundance of caution. Due not be surprised to see golfers withdraw mid-tournament which could absolutely crush your DFS lineups. Be smart with your bankroll this week and potentially scale back on your play.
Popular players Brooks Koepka and Webb Simpson have withdrawn which is going to impact ownership on other players significantly. Expect Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlory and Jon Rahm to have sky high ownership levels now so adjust your strategy accordingly.
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK’S MAIN PICKS
Webb Simpson – Winner
DraftKings points = 145
FanDuel Points = 152.7
Tyler Hatton – 3rd
DraftKings points = 114.5
FanDuel Points = 135.2
Jon Rahm – 33rd
DraftKings points = 90.5
FanDuel Points = 94.5
Adam Hadwin – 41st
DraftKings points = 88
FanDuel Points = 95.9
Onwards we go to the 2020 Travelers Championship and hopefully one us takes a top ten finish in the Millionaire Contest at Draftkings.
Travelers Championship Course Analysis
This event has always been played at TPC River Highlands and it is a rather forgiving course and I expect to see some more low scores this week. As far as course difficulty it’s somewhere in the middle overall between all the courses, not overly easy and not particularly that difficult for the pros. If you can drive the ball long here, and stay on the fairway of course, you are going to have an advantage over the field. Bubba Watson has won this event three times and when Bubba is in good form he’s smashing the ball long and far.
Key Stats: Driving Distance, SG: Off the Tee, Par 5 Birdie or Better, Par Breakers
*We use Golfstats.com to analyze course stats and past course history.
– Once again like the RBC Heritage, the 2020 Travelers Championship is not like the previous ones and will have more top ranked players in the field. Last year there was 22 out of the top 50 in the field, this year there will be 34. Some of those no-names that may look good on paper for course history should be eliminated this week. How did Luke Donald do last week who looked great on paper for the RBC Heritage?
– Paul Casey was 25% owned last year because of his course history here, expect him to hover just as high this year. Be careful though, you sure you want to rely on him when he hasn’t played since the re-start? That’s a lot of ownership to swallow against stiff competition this year who are starting to get back into the swing of things.
DFS Picks For The Travelers Championship
Every week I give you 5 picks – One from the top priced guys, 2 core plays, 1 sleeper pick and my top fade of the week. Let’s dive into this weeks picks:
Top Tier Pick
Draftkings – $9800
FanDuel – $11300
The obvious top tier picks to look at this week will be DeChambeau and Rory but their prices are just so inflated I can’t take them. They literally have to win the tournament to make them worth the price and that’s not a risk I’m willing to take. So that leads me to Cantlay who will play in his 1st tournament since the 2020 re-start. I’m not thrilled about that but remember this course is really forgiving so any kinks he may need to work out in the first 9 holes shouldn’t hurt him too bad. He has back to back 15th place finishes at River Highlands and his stats line up excellent for this course. His average DK points in the last 5 years is aprox. 78 points. At this tournament he averages 83 points and so far in 2020 he is averaging 89 points. I think this is a good spot to pick Cantlay out of the top priced salary golfers.
Honourable Mention: Dustin Johnson
He looked good at the RBC Heritage and obviously has the driving distance to wreck this course.
Travelers Championship Core DFS Picks
Draftkings – $8300
FanDuel – $10000
Woodland is coming off a rather disappointing tournament at the RBC Heritage but still gave you 70 DraftKings points and 91 FanDuel points. People tend to overlook guys who performed badly at the previous tournament and disregard that he had five straight Top 15’s prior. His course history is just ok here but he has made 3 out of 4 cuts in recent years. His driving distance is up there with the best and he’s 14th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green which is a stat to lean on this week. He was bound to have a weak performance on two straight finesse courses but at TPC River Highlands where you can just grip it and rip it, I foresee another top 15 coming up.
Draftkings – $8700
FanDuel – $10300
It pains me to make Reed one of my core plays this week because I just find him so hit or miss week to week. Let’s hope this is the “hit” week because I think this is a course where he can excel. He’s 4th in Par Breakers which I think will be key stat this week. The scores are going to be low again and you will need to make birdies or eagles on every par 5 and make birdies on very “birdie-able” par 4 holes. He’s finished 5th and 11th here in the past 4 years which tells me he can compete when he’s on his game but be weary he has missed the cuts 3 times in the past. He should be low-owned because he was just terrible last week and DFS players have very short memories. Let’s not forget though at Charles Schwab he finished 7th so last week may have just been a bump in the road for the former Masters champion.
Travelers Championship Sleeper Pick
DraftKings – $6500
FanDuel – $7800
When I give out sleeper picks I really dive into the true sleepers because I’m trying to win the whole damn thing. I’m not going to tell you a Marc Leishman, who is a good pick this week, at $8000 is a sleeper like many touts do. So that brings me into a true longshot pick in Wyndham Clark who let’s not kid ourselves is an extremely risky pick. I certainly would not take this guy in 10 lineups, if I was building 10, but I need someone who is going to be less then 5% owned who can give me his ceiling best at the right tournament. He finished 15th last year and has the driving distance to chase eagles on the Par 5’s. He is currently averaging 306 yards on tour which puts him 34th overall. I usually don’t go this dirt cheap but he would allow me to load up on some high priced guys and there are so many good picks this week at the top level. He gave you 89 DK points last year and averages 60 the last 5 years. If he can get me close to 80 with a Top 20 finish I’ll be happy with the pick.
Top Fade Of The Week
A fade means many things to different DFS players, some people consider it a total avoidance of that player and to not take him in any lineups. I just think you should be way under the field on fade plays. So if a guy is to be 15% owned in any given tournament then I would be looking to play him at only around 5% in my lineups. If I am doing just 1 lineup then yes I will not take this player at all. Here is my top DFS golf fade of the week:
DraftKings – $11000
FanDuel – $11700
Bryson is the 2nd highest salary on DraftKings and the 3rd on Fanduel. I get it he is now one of the best golfers in the world and everyone is in awe of the body transformation he has made, adding around 30 pounds to his frame. He played excellent on two shot making courses and now he gets to grip it and rip it on River Highlands where by the way he also has excellent course history. It all adds up to him taking down the win and you better hope he does if you are drafting him at his sky high salary and what I expect to be monster ownership, 20% and up. I think there is big pressure on him this week and he knows everyone will be watching every drive to see him tear the shell of the ball. The thing is he barely used his driver at all the first two weeks because the course didn’t call for it and now he will unleash “The Kraken” as he calls it. I’m banking on the accuracy just not being there yet and him being a little too hyped up to show off his new power. Also, that extra poundage is going to start slowing him down a little in the stamina department as this will now be three tournaments in a row for him. I expect him to make the cut and maybe in the hunt come Sunday but I don’t think he wins this week. So while others are salivating to take him, for me at that salary and ownership he becomes a nice contrarian fade.