The PGA Tour takes an odd swing this week as we move onto the newly created tournament the Workday Charity Open. It will also mark the first of two weeks at the same course, that being Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. All of this equates to a weird scenario where the Workday Charity Open could possibly be used as a tune-up round for some guys before the bigger event, The Memorial Tournament, at the same course a week later.
Regardless, for DFS purposes I think you just treat it as if you were researching The Memorial tournament two weeks in a row. There has been some talk of course changes for the Workday Charity event but as we explain later in our course analysis I don’t think it will mean all too much as far as changing your strategy for picking golfers.
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK’S PICKS
Tyler Hatton – 4th
DraftKings points = 112
FanDuel Points = 121.4
Hideki Matsuyama – 21st
DraftKings points = 89.5
FanDuel Points = 103.7
Adam Hadwin – 4th
DraftKings points = 113
FanDuel Points = 122.2
Kyle Stanley – MC
DraftKings points = 34
FanDuel Points = 34.7
Kevin Na – WD (Back Injury)
DraftKings points = 14
FanDuel Points = 13.1
Top Fade Of The Week
Bubba Watson – Missed Cut
Muirfield Village Course Analysis
Finally, we are getting a course that may present somewhat of a challenge for the players as they have been absolutely tearing up the easy courses of the past 3 weeks. The fairways are forgiving as they are very wide but the thick rough and fast greens can make it a nightmare on some days when the weather is just right. Pay attention to the weather if it is dry you will have very fast greens but any sort of rain or moisture can make this course much easier then it should be.
So there has been a lot of talk about changes to Muirfield Village for the Workday Charity Open. I guess it is the PGA Tour’s attempt to differentiate the Workday from the Memorial with some subtle changes to the course this week. They are talking about slowing down the greens a touch, having the rough a couple inches lower and shorting some of tee boxes. However, when you dig into the fine details it looks like only 3 tee boxes will be changed in total – #8, #11 and #15. All and all I don’t think it will make much of a difference and if the weather conditions are dry the course should be play to how it normally does. I wouldn’t read too much into these small changes and just research as you normally would.
Key Stats: Approach, Scrambling, SG: Tee to Green
*We use Golfstats.com to analyze course stats and past course history.
– Putting will likely be crucial this week (not that it isn’t always) with the fast, angulated greens at Muirfield. I’m going to lean on guys who have been the most consistent putters the last 3 weeks, especially inside 10 feet.
Golfers Playing In Their 5th Straight Tournament
Workday Charity Open DFS Picks and Sleepers
A bit of advice before we dive into the picks is to take it a little easier this week in your play volume. This tournament is a bit of a puzzle as it was created out of thin air and is mainly for charity. The field is much stronger this week but be weary that some guys may be using it as tune-up for next week’s Memorial Tournament which has a stacked field and a huge purse. I’m going with a more balanced approach this week over Stars and Scrubs which payed off last week. I think a good core of guys in the middle price range will be best.
Top Tier DFS Pick
Draftkings – $9700
FanDuel – $10800
Rose comes at a little bit of a discount compared to the other guys in his tier and when looking at his average salary which is usually above $9900 on DK. His re-start to the season started off great with a 3rd place finish at Charles Schwab and a 14th place finish at the Heritage. He then busted after that and missed the cut. What I like is he took last week off to hopefully re-group and take a breather so that he comes into the next two weeks fresh. He is 10 for 13 in cuts made at The Memorial and has averaged 93 fantasy points in the last 5 years. This is a course made for shot makers and that he is. I expect he will be contention for at least 1 out of 2 weeks at Muirfield, if not both.
Honourable Mentions: There are some really nice plays in the top tier this week and it was a struggle between Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele. I’m really high on Koepka here as well and I will likely have him as a top play next week but it will be nice to see how he plays this week first as a primer. I won’t be surprised to see Brooks, Rose and Xander in the top 15 each week.
Mid-Tier DFS Picks
Draftkings – $8300
FanDuel – $9900
Another guy who took a much needed break last week as his game was looking at little rough at The Travellers where he missed the cut. Speaking of rough, if he gets into the rough this week often he will be in big trouble as his scrambling ability is not the greatest. However, when analyzing his stats in his last 3 events I’m not too worried about it. He’s been Top 20 in Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation. How about Accuracy? Well he has an average rank of 25th in that category as well. If he is on his game he will be in contention and I think that break last week will help tremendously. He also plays well here and has made the cut 80% of the time. At $8300 on DK he is a discount and can win this thing.
Draftkings – $7700
FanDuel – $9300
The rest theme continues as I am taking all golfers who took last week off for my picks. I think last week was the perfect time for a break as players try to stay fresh in this condensed 2020 PGA season. I could almost use him as a sleeper pick in this price range but I’m not sure you can label him as a sleeper anymore. He has 4 Top Tens and is averaging 86 points in his last 3 events. I think he will be heavily owned although maybe some people will be scared off by his weak performance at the Memorial last year. This is a different Dahmen though and he is having a career year so far. His game is just so well balanced being top 30 for many crucial stats in the past few weeks including GIR, DA and SG:T2G.
Top DFS Sleeper Pick
DraftKings – $7400
FanDuel – $8900
I get to play my favorite angle with my sleeper pick this week and that is recency bias. Sabbanti blew up a lot of DFS lineups last week with a missed cut so there will be a lot of angry players who immediately pass him over out of disgust. He was 11% owned in the Millionaire Contest last week so expect that to drop to around 8% this week. Before last week he was playing great with a 14th and 21st place finish in his last 2 events. Maybe he was just a little rusty coming off of his break because his stats still look good coming into the Workday Charity Open. His accuracy has been on point and he has been one of the better players in scrambling since we re-started which may be much needed skill this week.
Top Fade Of The Week
DraftKings – $8700
FanDuel – $10,100
Don’t know why Leishman is priced so high this week but I’m not willing to spend that much on a guy who has yet to get his game back to his A level. That being said, this may be the tournament he starts to shine because his history here is great with 10 for 11 cuts made. I think a lot of guys will be picking him simply for that reason but his average finish is only 41st and all his recent stats look awful coming into this event. He’s a pass for me and someone like Reed or even Spieth look more appealing in that price range.